Constrained basin stability for studying transient phenomena in dynamical systems

Author(s): A. van Kan, J. Jegminat, J.F. Donges, and J. Kurths.
In: Physical Review E 93(4), 042205
Year: 2016
Type: Journal / article
Theme affiliation: Complex Adaptive Systems, Marine
Full reference: A. van Kan, J. Jegminat, J.F. Donges, and J. Kurths. 2016. Constrained basin stability for studying transient dynamics in complex systems, Physical Review E 93(4), 042205

Summary

Transient dynamics are of large interest in many areas of science. Here, a generalization of basin stability (BS) is presented: constrained basin stability (CBS) that is sensitive to various different types of transients arising from finite size perturbations. CBS is applied to the paradigmatic Lorenz system for uncovering nonlinear precursory phenomena of a boundary crisis bifurcation. Further, CBS is used in a model of the Earth's carbon cycle as a return time-dependent stability measure of the system's global attractor. Both case studies illustrate how CBS's sensitivity to transients complements BS in its function as an early warning signal and as a stability measure. CBS is broadly applicable in systems where transients matter, from physics and engineering to sustainability science. Thus CBS complements stability analysis with BS as well as classical linear stability analysis and will be a useful tool for many applications.

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