Staff profile

Linking demographic and food‐web models to understand management trade‐offs

Kadin, M., Frederiksen, M., Niiranen, S., Converse, S.J.

2019 - Journal / article

Alternatives in ecosystem‐based management often differ with respect to trade‐offs between ecosystem values. Ecosystem or food‐web models and demographic models are typically employed to evaluate alternatives, but the approaches are rarely integrated to uncover conflicts between values. We applied multistate models to a capture–recapture dataset on common guillemots Uria aalge breeding in the Baltic Sea to identify factors in...

Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change

Lotze, H.K., Tittensor, D.P., Bryndum-Buchholz, A., Eddy, T.D. et. al.

2019 - Journal / article

While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with a...

A participatory scenario method to explore the future of marine social‐ecological systems

Planque B., Mullon C., Arneberg P., et.al.

2019 - Journal / article

Anticipating future changes in marine social‐ecological systems (MSES) several decades into the future is essential in the context of accelerating global change. This is challenging in situations where actors do not share common understandings, practices, or visions about the future. We introduce a dedicated scenario method for the development of MSES scenarios in a participatory context. The objective is to allow different ac...

Ecological and functional consequences of coastal ocean acidification: Perspectives from the Baltic-Skagerrak System

Havenhand, J.N., Filipsson, H.L., Niiranen, S. et al.

2019 - Journal / article

Ocean temperatures are rising; species are shifting poleward, and pH is falling (ocean acidification, OA). We summarise current understanding of OA in the brackish Baltic-Skagerrak System, focussing on the direct, indirect and interactive effects of OA with other anthropogenic drivers on marine biogeochemistry, organisms and ecosystems. Substantial recent advances reveal a pattern of stronger responses (positive or negative) o...