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Blenckner, T., Ammar, Y., Müller-Karulis, B., Niiranen, S., Arneborg, L., Li, Q.. 2021. The Risk for Novel and Disappearing Environmental Conditions in the Baltic Sea. Frontiers in Marine Science. http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.745722
Future climate biogeochemical projections indicate large changes in the ocean with environmental conditions not experienced at present referred to as novel, or may even disappear. These climate-induced changes will most likely affect species distribution via changes in growth, behavior, evolution, dispersal, and species interactions. However, the future risk of novel and disappearing environmental conditions in the ocean is po...
Ammar, Y., Niiranen, S., Otto, S.A., Möllmann, C., Finsinger, W. and Blenckner, T., 2021. The rise of novelty in marine ecosystems: The Baltic Sea case. Global change biology, 27(7), pp.1485-1499
Global environmental changes have accelerated at an unprecedented rate in recent decades due to human activities. As a consequence, the incidence of novel abiotic conditions and biotic communities, which have been continuously emerging in the Earth system, has rapidly risen. Despite growing attention to the incidence and challenges posed by novelty in terrestrial ecosystems, novelty has not yet been quantified in marine ecosys...
Journal / article
Franke, A., Blenckner, T., Duarte, C.M., Ott, K., Fleming, L.E., Antia, A., Reusch, T.B., Bertram, C., Hein, J., Kronfeld-Goharani, U. and Dierking, J., 2020. Operationalizing Ocean Health: Toward Integrated Research on Ocean Health and Recovery to Achieve Ocean Sustainability. One Earth.
Protecting the ocean has become a major goal of international policy as human activities increasingly endanger the integrity of the ocean ecosystem, often summarized as “ocean health.” By and large, efforts to protect the ocean have failed because, among other things, (1) the underlying socio-ecological pathways have not been properly considered, and (2) the concept of ocean health has been ill defined. Collectively, this pre...
Otto, S.A., Niiranen, S., Blenckner, T., Tomczak, M.T., Müller-Karulis, B., Rubene, G. and Möllmann, C., 2020. Life Cycle Dynamics of a Key Marine Species Under Multiple Stressors. Frontiers in Marine Science, 7, p.296.
Identifying key indicator species, their life cycle dynamics and the multiple driving forces they are affected by is an important step in ecosystem-based management. Similarly important is understanding how environmental changes and trophic interactions shape future trajectories of key species with potential implications for ecosystem state and service provision. We here present a statistical modeling framework to assess and q...
Stenseth, N.C., Payne, M.R., Bonsdorff, E., Dankel, D.J., Durant, J.L., Anderson, L.G., Armstrong, C.W., Blenckner, T., Brakstad, A., Dupont, S., Eikeset, A.M., Goksøyr, A., Jónsson, S., Kuparinen, A., Våge, K., Österblom, H., Paasche, Ø. 2020. Attuning to a changing ocean. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(34), pp.20363-20371.
The ocean is a lifeline for human existence, but current practices risk severely undermining ocean sustainability. Present and future social−ecological challenges necessitate the maintenance and development of knowledge and action by stimulating collaboration among scientists and between science, policy, and practice. Here we explore not only how such collaborations have developed in the Nordic countries and adjacent seas but ...
Martin, R., Schlüter, M., Blenckner, T. 2020. The importance of transient social dynamics for restoring ecosystems beyond ecological tipping points. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1817154117
Managing regime shifts is often associated with “turning back from the brink” assuming that once a system has transgressed a tipping point, it moves unavoidably toward the undesired state. We show that a regime shift is rather a slippery slope that can be managed and even reversed when transient dynamics and time lags in the coupled social-ecological system are taken into account. We constructed an empirically based simulatio...
Journal / article
Kadin, M., Blenckner, T., Casini, M., Gårdmark, A., et.al. 2019. Trophic Interactions, Management Trade-Offs and Climate Change: The Need for Adaptive Thresholds to Operationalize Ecosystem Indicators. Front. Mar. Sci., 21 May 2019 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00249
Ecosystem-based management (EBM) is commonly applied to achieve sustainable use of marine resources. For EBM, regular ecosystem-wide assessments of changes in environmental or ecological status are essential components, as well as assessments of the effects of management measures. Assessments are typically carried out using indicators. A major challenge for the usage of indicators in EBM is trophic interactions as these may in...
Maldonado, A.D., Uusitalo, L., Tucker, A., Blenckner, T., Aguilera, P.A., Salmerón, A. 2019. Prediction of a complex system with few data: Evaluation of the effect of model structure and amount of data with dynamic bayesian network models. Environmental Modelling & Software Volume 118, August 2019, Pages 281-297
A major challenge in environmental modeling is to identify structural changes in the ecosystem across time, i.e., changes in the underlying process that generates the data. In this paper, we analyze the Baltic Sea food web in order to 1) examine potential unobserved processes that could affect the ecosystem and 2) make predictions on some variables of interest. To do so, dynamic Bayesian networks with different setups of hidd...
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Yletyinen, J., J. Hentati-Sundberg, T. Blenckner, and Ö. Bodin. 2018. Fishing strategy diversification and fishers' ecological dependency. Ecology and Society 23(3):28.https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-10211-230328
Sustainable fisheries management plays a critical role in supporting healthy marine ecosystems and the livelihoods of millions of people. An emerging view on fisheries management emphasizes the need to manage fisheries as complex social-ecological systems. Yet, our understanding of the outcomes of fisheries management from a social-ecological perspective is limited in comparison to that provided by either the biophysical or t...
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Lynham, J., B.S. Halpern, T. Blenckner, T. Essington, J. Estes, M. Hunsicker, C. Kappel, A.K. Salomon, C. Scarborough, K.A. Selkoe, A. Stier. 2017. Costly stakeholder participation creates inertia in marine ecosystems. Marine Policy 76: 122-129.
Ecosystems often shift abruptly and dramatically between different regimes in response to human or natural disturbances. When ecosystems tip from one regime to another, the suite of available ecosystem benefits changes, impacting the stakeholders who rely on these benefits. These changes often create some groups who stand to incur large losses if an ecosystem returns to a previous regime. When the participation cost in the dec...
Stockholm Resilience Centre is a collaboration between Stockholm University and the Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
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