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Journal / article
Zou, Y., Donner, R.V., Marwan, N., Donges, J.F., Kurths, J. 2019. Complex network approaches to nonlinear time series analysis. Physics Reports, Volume 787, 21 January 2019, Pages 1-97
In the last decade, there has been a growing body of literature addressing the utilization of complex network methods for the characterization of dynamical systems based on time series. While both nonlinear time series analysis and complex network theory are widely considered to be established fields of complex systems sciences with strong links to nonlinear dynamics and statistical physics, the thorough combination of both a...
Barfuss, W., Donges, J.F., Kurths, J. 2019. Deterministic limit of temporal difference reinforcement learning for stochastic games. Phys. Rev. E 99, 043305. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.99.043305
Reinforcement learning in multiagent systems has been studied in the fields of economic game theory, artificial intelligence and statistical physics by developing an analytical understanding of the learning dynamics (often in relation to the replicator dynamics of evolutionary game theory). However, the majority of these analytical studies focuses on repeated normal form games, which only have a single environmental state. Env...
Downing, A., Bhowmik, A., Collste, D. Cornell, S.E., Donges, J., et.al. 2019. Matching scope, purpose and uses of planetary boundaries science. Environ. Res. Lett. 14 073005. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab22c9
Background : The Planetary Boundaries concept (PBc) has emerged as a key global sustainability concept in international sustainable development arenas. Initially presented as an agenda for global sustainability research, it now shows potential for sustainability governance. We use the fact that it is widely cited in scientific literature (>3500 citations) and an extensively studied concept to analyse how it has been used and...
Journal / article
Steffen, W., Rockström, J., Richardson, K., Lenton, T.M. et.al. 2018. Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. PNAS August 14, 2018 115 (33) 8252-8259. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1810141115
We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years a...
Heitzig, J., Barfuss, W., Donges, J.F. 2018. A Thought Experiment on Sustainable Management of the Earth System. Sustainability, 10, 1947. DOI: 10.3390/su10061947
We introduce and analyze a simple formal thought experiment designed to reflect a qualitative decision dilemma humanity might currently face in view of anthropogenic climate change. In this exercise, each generation can choose between two options, either setting humanity on a pathway to certain high wellbeing after one generation of suffering, or leaving the next generation in the same state as the current one with the same op...
Randers, Jorgen, Johan Rockström, Per E. Stoknes, Ulrich Goluke, David Collste, and Sarah Cornell. 2018. “Achieving the 17 Sustainable Development Goals Within 9 Planetary Boundaries.” EarthArXiv. October 16. doi:10.31223/osf.io/xwevb
We have built a simulation model (Earth3) to help answer two research questions: How many of the 17 UN sustainable development goals (SDGs) will be achieved by 2030? And: What will be the resulting pressure on 9 planetary boundaries (PBs)? Our tentative answer is that he world will not reach all SDGs by 2030, nor by 2050, and that the global safety margin (the buffer between the human impact and planetary boundaries) will cont...
W. Barfuss, J.F. Donges, S.J. Lade, J. Kurths. 2018. When optimization for governing human-environment tipping elements is neither sustainable nor safe. Nature Communications [DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-04738-z]
Optimizing economic welfare in environmental governance has been criticized for delivering short-term gains at the expense of long-term environmental degradation. Different from economic optimization, the concepts of sustainability and the more recent safe operating space have been used to derive policies in environmental governance. However, a formal comparison between these three policy paradigms is still missing, leaving po...
Lade, S. J., Donges, J. F., Fetzer, I., Anderies, J. M., Beer, C., Cornell, S. E., Gasser, T., Norberg, J., Richardson, K., Rockström, J., and Steffen, W. 2018. Analytically tractable climate–carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing, Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 507-523, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-507-2018, 2018.
Changes to climate–carbon cycle feedbacks may significantly affect the Earth system’s response to greenhouse gas emissions. These feedbacks are usually analysed from numerical output of complex and arguably opaque Earth system models. Here, we construct a stylised global climate–carbon cycle model, test its output against comprehensive Earth system models, and investigate the strengths of its climate–carbon cycle feedbacks ...
Milkoreit, M., Hodbod, J., Baggio, J. Benessaiah, K. et. al. 2018. Defining tipping points for social-ecological systems scholarship – an interdisciplinary literature review. doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaaa75
The term tipping point has experienced explosive popularity across multiple disciplines over the last decade. Research on social-ecological systems (SES) has contributed to the growth and diversity of the term's use. The diverse uses of the term obscure potential differences between tipping behavior in natural and social systems, and issues of causality across natural and social system components in SES. This paper aims to cre...
Journal / article
Wiedermann, M., J.F. Donges, D. Handorf, J. Kurths, R.V. Donner. 2017. Hierarchical structures in Northern Hemispheric extratropical winter ocean-atmosphere interactions. International Journal of Climatology 37(10): 3821-3836.
In recent years extensive studies on the Earth's climate system have been carried out by means of advanced complex network statistics. The great majority of these studies, however, have been focusing on investigating correlation structures within single climatic fields directly on or parallel to the Earth's surface. Here, we develop a novel approach of node weighted coupled network measures to study correlations between ocean ...
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