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Our research is regularly published in top-ranked scientific journals. Search for specific publications below
Journal / article | 2016
A. van Kan, J. Jegminat, J.F. Donges, and J. Kurths. 2016. Constrained basin stability for studying transient dynamics in complex systems, Physical Review E 93(4), 042205
Transient dynamics are of large interest in many areas of science. Here, a generalization of basin stability (BS) is presented: constrained basin stability (CBS) that is sensitive to various different types of transients arising from finite size perturbations. CBS is applied to the paradigmatic Lorenz system for uncovering nonlinear precursory phenomena of a boundary crisis bifurcation. Further, CBS is used in a model of the E...
M. Wiedermann, A. Radebach, J.F. Donges, J. Kurths, and R.V. Donner. 2016. A climate network-based index to discriminate different types of El Niño and La Niña, Geophysical Research Letters 43
El Niño exhibits distinct Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) types which are commonly, but not always consistently, distinguished from each other by different signatures in equatorial climate variability. Here we propose an index based on evolving climate networks to objectively discriminate between both flavors by utilizing a scalar-valued measure that quantifies spatial localization and dispersion in global teleco...
Schleussner, C. F., J. F. Donges, R. V. Donner, and H. J. Schellnhuber. 2016. Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113(33): 9216-9221.
Ethnic divides play a major role in many armed conflicts around the world and might serve as predetermined conflict lines following rapidly emerging societal tensions arising from disruptive events like natural disasters. We find evidence in global datasets that risk of armed-conflict outbreak is enhanced by climate-related disaster occurrence in ethnically fractionalized countries. Although we find no indications that environ...
C.-F. Schleussner, J.F. Donges, D.A. Engemann, and A. Levermann. 2016. Clustered marginalization of minorities during social transitions induced by co-evolution of behaviour and network structure, Nature Scientific Reports 6, 30790, DOI: 10.1038/srep30790,
Large-scale transitions in societies are associated with both individual behavioural change and restructuring of the social network. These two factors have often been considered independently, yet recent advances in social network research challenge this view. Here we show that common features of societal marginalization and clustering emerge naturally during transitions in a co-evolutionary adaptive network model. This is ach...
N. Molkenthin, H. Kutza, L. Tupikina, N. Marwan, J.F. Donges, U. Feudel, J. Kurths, and R.V. Donner. 2016. Edge anisotropy and a geometric perspective on flow networks, Chaos, in print (2016)
Spatial networks have recently attracted great interest in various fields of research. While the traditional network-theoretic viewpoint is commonly restricted to their topological characteristics (often disregarding existing spatial constraints), this work takes a geometric perspective, which considers vertices and edges as objects in a metric space and quantifies the corresponding spatial distribution and alignment. For this...
Policy brief or report | 2016
Crona. B., et.al. 2016. Governing ecosystem-based management: why and how we should think about collaborative networks. Stockholm Resilience Centre, November 2016
• Ecosystem-based management (EBM) has become a leading principle in environmental governance and constitutes an overarching strategy for how to deal with the complexity of environmental challenges • EBM implies a management process in which an ecosystem-based perspective is evident in management goals and strategies, and guides processes of monitoring and evaluation • Collaboration across management levels, and stakeholder ...
Crona, B., et.al. 2016. An analytical framework for assessing progress toward ecosystem-based management. Stockholm Resilience Centre brief, November 2016
While both practical implementation of Ecosystem-based management (EBM), and academic studies of such initiatives, has increased in the last decade there is a notable lack of systematic, critical assessment of EBM progress and outcomes that take both ecological and socioeconomic aspects into account in an integrated fashion. This is problematic given the increasingly important role of EBM as a guiding principle and goal in bot...
Norström, A. V., Nyström, M., Jouffray, J-B., Folke, C., Graham, NAJ., Moberg, F., Olsson, P., Williams, G.J. 2016. Guiding coral reef futures in the Anthropocene. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment
Anthropogenic changes to the Earth now rival those caused by the forces of nature and have shepherded us into a new planetary epoch – the Anthropocene. Such changes include profound and often unexpected alterations to coral reef ecosystems and the services they provide to human societies. Ensuring that reefs and their services endure during the Anthropocene will require that key drivers of coral reef change – fishing, water qu...
Sinare, H., Gordon, L. J., Enfors Kautsky, E. 2016. Assessment of ecosystem services and benefits in village landscapes - a case study from Burkina Faso. Ecosystem Services 21:141-152.
Most methods to assess ecosystem services have been developed on large scales and depend on secondary data. Such data is scarce in rural areas with widespread poverty. Nevertheless, the population in these areas strongly depends on local ecosystem services for their livelihoods. These regions are in focus for substantial landscape investments that aim to alleviate poverty, but current methods fail to capture the vast range of ...
Marcus, L., Giusti, M., Barthel, S. 2016.Cognitive affordances in sustainable urbanism: contributions of space syntax and spatial cognition. Journal of Urban Design Volume 21, 2016 - Issue 4
Post-industrial societies impose new ecological challenges on urbanism. However, it is argued here that most approaches to sustainable urbanism still share the conception of the humans-environment relations that characterized modernism. The paper finds support in recent knowledge developments in social-ecological sustainability, spatial analysis and cognitive science to initiate a dialogue for an alternative framework. Urban f...
Stockholm Resilience Centre is a collaboration between Stockholm University and the Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
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